Learning objectives

• Rapid evolution enables influenza to evade immune responses built-up to previous vaccines and infections
• Flu genetic diversity is captured through extensive sequencing of the HA and NA genes
• Flu is spread through virus migration between source and sink regions that change over time
• Can we predict regional flu epidemic sizes and dominant type/subtype by tracking dynamics in related regions?

Speaker Bio

Dr Ragonnet uses evolutionary analysis of viral genetic data to understand transmission patterns. Her previous work focused on uncovering the transmission dynamics of HIV in Uganda, Botswana, Canada, the USA and the UK; for example, looking at the contribution of various risk groups to onward transmission, investigating a large outbreak among people who inject drugs and estimating time since infection from HIV genetic sequences. During the pandemic, she worked closely with the UK government to identify and track the spread of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants. Currently, Dr Ragonnet is integrating phylogenetic analysis into models that forecast flu epidemic size.